China has long been interested in developing a strategic bomber, tentatively designated H-X. In early September, the China Daily posted a report in which air force Gen Ma Xiaotian confirmed that work was taking place on the project. He gave few details, although Chinese defence websites are awash with images speculating about what the new aircraft might look like. The consensus appears to be a low-observable platform akin to the Northrop Grumman B-2 Spirit, but it is difficult to say exactly what is planned or when the world will get its first glimpse of the new aircraft. All Ma would say is that the aircraft will appear “some time in the future”.
For the time being, show visitors will have to make do with that mainstay of the Zhuhai static display: the Xian H-6, based on the Tupolev Tu-16. In 2014, the H-6M made its show debut, complete with two hardpoints under each wing. Prior to 2014, only the H-6H, with one hardpoint under each wing, appeared at the show. The type is used for a range of missions, including conventional bombing, cruise missile strike, air-to-air refuelling and intelligence-gathering. Flight Fleets Analyzer shows that China's air force has 120 H-6 aircraft, and its navy 30.
Another likely return visitor is the air force’s Xian Y-20 strategic transport, inducted into frontline service earlier this year. The four-engined type is another important step in the development of China's power-projection capabilities.
“While China has made strides in terms of fighter capability and advanced technologies, it is fair to say that versus an F-35-armed Japan or USA it would attempt to negate its foes’ qualitative advantages with quantity,” says Forecast International’s Darling. “Meaning in terms of the sheer quantity of fighters it could mass at a given point [in terms of a conflict scenario in China's immediate neighbourhood], the goal would be to overcome an adversary’s superior firepower with numbers.”
A high-level conflict with Asia’s other leading power and the USA is but one, hopefully distant, eventuality. Davis says Chinese airpower is even more impressive when weighed against other potential foes.
“China severely overmatches all Southeast Asian states, but really two are most relevant – the Philippines and Vietnam. The Philippines does not have an air combat capability, so the Chinese would own the sky above Manila. The Vietnamese air force has a small force of Su-27/30s, but they would be no match for the PLAAF.”
There is nothing quite like a fighter roaring overhead to fire national pride. China is, rightfully, proud of its aerospace tradition. No other venue matches Zhuhai for the prominence it gives to the country’s hopes and dreams for fighter jets.
